By admin       2018-03-07

Seasonal price tendencies can play a big role in agricultural price forecasting. US agricultural markets have historically tended to strengthen during springtime. This is largely due to the fact thatUS planting takes place in the spring. Uncertainly over acreage and weather have historically tended to create anxiety in the markets, making bulls more eager to take positions and bears more fearful of jumping the gun on successful planting. In grains, this "planting anxiety" often happens in the late spring - April/May time period. Once successful planting has occurred however, and crops deemed safely "in the ground," it is not uncommon to see prices weaken as anxiety tends to fade. historically, it is not uncommon to see cotton prices strengthen into March, only to give way toweakness into the spring. Cotton has tended to display this same historical price cycle. However, as the majority of the US cotton crop is planted in the south, planting tends to occur earlier in the year. Thus the "planting anxiety" premium tends to build into the market earlier. But it also tends to fade earlier. Thus, historically, it is not uncommon to see cotton prices strengthen into March, only to give way toweakness into the spring and summer growing season.

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