By admin       2018-03-09

U.S. production estimate cut 230,000 bales, exports raised 300,000 bales and ending stocks lowered 500,000 bales. Cotton ginned to March 1 reported up 18.4% from a year ago. Global carryout raised 570,000 bales. Cotton futures surged on the heels of supportive U.S. weekly export sales-shipments data and ended near the highs on steep gains Thursday after monthly supply-demand estimates later contained no big surprises. May jumped 226 points to close at 85.12 cents, trading within a 229-point range from up 10 points at 82.96 to up 239 points at 85.25 cents. The reversal and sharply lower close off the contract high of 86.60 cents on Tuesday are regarded as marking that as an important chart point. July settled up 200 points at 84.55 cents, also near the high of its 213-point range from 82.56 to 84.69 cents. December posted a new contract high at 78.50 cents and closed a tick below that at 78.49 cents. Volume was estimated at 43,675 lots, slightly above 43,146 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 21,933 lots or 51% and EFP 574 lots. Options volume rose to 11,900 lots (6,903 calls and 4,997 puts) from 6,688 lots (4,925 calls and 1,763 puts). U.S. all-cotton 2017-18 production is estimated at 21.03 million bales, down 230,000 bales from its previous forecast, based on the March ginning report, USDA reported. Cotton ginned prior to March 1 of 19.599 million running bales, up 18.4% from 16.559 million last year, included 18.921 million RB of upland, up from 16.024 million RB, and 677,950 RB of Pima, up from 535,150 RB. Ginners estimated cotton still to be processed totaled 898,500 RB, USDA said. Final estimates on acreage, yields and production will be reported May 10. Upland ginning in Texas, the largest cotton state, at 8.806 million RB was up 11.9% from a year ago. The USDA left U.S. acreage estimates unchanged and trimmed yields 10 pounds per harvested acre to 889 pounds, up from 867 pounds last year and the five-year average of 839 pounds. Exports are projected up 300,000 bales from a month ago to 14.8 million, based on stronger world demand and expectations of above-average shipments during the second half of the marketing year. Domestic mill use remained at 3.35 million bales. Ending stocks fell 500,000 bales to 5.5 million, still up from 2.75 million last year. The stocks-to-use ratio is pegged at 30.3%, down from 33.6% foreseen last month but up from 15.1% a year ago. The USDA narrowed the projection of the marketing year average price received by producers by a penny on each end of the range to 68 to 70 cents per pound. This left the midpoint at 69 cents, up a cent from the 2016-17 average. Globally, USDA raised production 570,000 bales to 121.94 million, boosted consumption 290,000 bales to 120.79 million and hiked ending stocks 300,000 bales to 88.85 million. The crop forecast reflected revisions in Sudan�s estimates back to 2013-14, a boost in its 2017-18 output and a 300,000-bale increase to 4.7 million in Australia following reports that the area previously indicated for sorghum there was planted to cotton. Partially offsetting were the smaller U.S. crop and a 120,000-bale cut to 3.58 million in Uzbekistan. World cotton trade is projected up 600,000 bales to 38.83 million as higher imports expected by Turkey, Bangladesh, China and Vietnam more than offset a decline for Taiwan. Global ending stocks are estimated at 73.6% of total use, compared with 73.5% foreseen in February and 76.4% last year. China�s stocks are forecast at 102.3% of its world-leading mill use, against 102% estimated in February and 128.9% last season. Futures open interest fell 1,571 lots to 268,717 on Wednesday, with May�s down 2,228 bales to 129,280, July�s down 896 lots to 59,418 and December�s up 1,428 lots to 64,431. Certified stocks declined 6,285 bales to 87,328. Awaiting review were 78 bales at Galveston.

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