By admin       2018-03-15

A combination of buoyant world consumption and falling production is expected to lead to a fall in world cotton stocks next season, according to the first forecast for 2018/19 from the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC). The new season, which starts in August, is likely to see global cotton consumption grow to 26.5m tons – based on global economic expansion, an expected acceleration of consumer demand for textiles, manufacturing growth for cotton, and rising environmental and production costs for synthetics. At the same time, however, global cotton production is projected to decline, based on lower yields and decreases in harvested area. The inter-governmental group's current estimates for the 2018/19 season are for production to move to 25.4m tons and consumption to rise to 26.5m tons. Based on these projections, global cotton stocks would decline to 18.2m tons, with projections for global trade to go to 9.15m tons. Current season projections In its latest update, the ICAC also says current projections for the 2017/18 season include production at 25.8m tons and consumption at 25.4m tons. Production increases are coming off gains in planted area rather than yields this season. Global average yield for 2017/18 is currently being estimated at 778 kilograms per hectare, a 0.1% increase from the previous season, while area increases are expected to be up 12% from the previous season. While most major cotton producing countries have estimated increased planted area for 2017/18 over the previous season, Australia has decreased planted area yet still increased cotton production, with a yield growth of 16% with an estimated yield of 1936 kg per hectare. Meanwhile, India and Pakistan, with estimated area increases of 16% and 24% respectively, encountered production losses from pink bollworm this season.

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