By admin       2018-06-18

We have tried to understand the USDA’s hesitation in moving this year’s US crop projection lower. The key word here is projection – it is a moving target, it is okay to miss. The way the USDA produces its figures follows: The USDA – World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for the release of all figures for the entire year and for the development of international estimates and projections at all times WAOB is also responsible for domestic figures, outside of production, at all times USDA-NASS provides all domestic acreage estimates and production estimates to the WOAB from July – Dec Given these parameters, it certainly seems that the WOAB has decided to default on its portion of the bargain. It is true that the WOAB lost a long-time leader in cotton to retirement relatively recently, under whom we did not witness this “kicking the can down the road” maneuver. In the end, we would remind USDA that it is their responsibility – to the best of their ability – to make crop projections with the best information available at any given time. It does not seem as though they have done this. It is fair to assume that Jimmy the Greek would have had a better record in predicting the outcome of games if he had done so in the third quarter, 6th inning, second period, etc of said contests rather than before the games actually commenced. The current USDA stance, we think, damages their credibility.

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