By admin       2018-07-03

Shurley said cotton growers only need look at one number — the 31 percent of the Texas crop that USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service says is in poor or very poor condition — to know the crop prospects are not as rosy as they might seem. Yes, the crop got planted, but, again, if you combine the fact that a lot of that crop was planted in certainly less than optimal conditions, and you look at the 31 percent poor to very poor condition rating in Texas, that’s what’s been driving the market and will continue to, he said. Look at Oklahoma, 22 percent of the Oklahoma crop is in poor to very poor condition. Elsewhere, most of the crop is in fair to good condition. Growers don’t have too many worries in the Mid‑South and the Southeast in terms of crop condition. But, again, the market’s been focusing, and rightfully so, on that large Texas crop and the fact that almost a third of it certainly is not in very good shape. When Shurley participated in the University of Arkansas Food and Agribusiness Webinar Series event, USDA’s Economic Research Service was estimating the 2018 U.S. crop at 19.5 million bales. I was a little surprised, given the deteriorating conditions of the crop, to have the same estimate as we basically did last month in May, he said. We have to keep an eye on that. I think right now most industry observers feel like the crop potentially is going to be less than that. And again, that’s part of what’s driving the market right now.

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