By admin       2018-08-17

U.S. cotton demand for 2018/19 and 2017/18 were adjusted this month based on recently released data. For 2018/19, demand is projected at 18.9 million bales, nearly 3 percent above the July forecast but slightly below the revised 2017/18 demand of nearly 19.1 million bales. Increased supplies—from both larger beginning stocks and a higher August production forecast—are expected to provide additional opportunities for U.S. cotton exports in 2018/19 as world trade is projected to rise again. For 2018/19, U.S. cotton exports are projected at 15.5 million bales, 500,000 bales above last month’s forecast but nearly 350,000 bales below the adjusted 2017/18 export estimate. Final marketing year data for 2017/18 was reported in USDA’s U.S. Export Sales report on August 9. With lower U.S. exports and higher global trade forecast in 2018/19, the U.S. share of world trade is forecast to decrease from 39 percent in 2017/18 to 37 percent, but remain above the 5-year average. Meanwhile, U.S. cotton mill use was reduced 100,000 bales for 2017/18 to 3.25 million bales, as cumulative data through June indicate that total mill use will remain near the 2016/17 level. For 2018/19, U.S. cotton mill use remains forecast at 3.4 million bales, as growth in the global economy supports textile expansion in a number of countries. With U.S. cotton production expected to exceed demand in 2018/19, ending stocks are projected to rise modestly to 4.6 million bales, compared with 2017/18’s estimate of 4.4 million bales. Consequently, this season’s stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to grow slightly to 24 percent; this ratio compares with the 5-year average of 22 percent and would be the highest in 3 years, if realized. As of August, however, the 2018/19 upland farm price is forecast to range between 70 and 80 cents per pound. At the midpoint of 75 cents per pound, the farm price is 7 cents above the estimate for 2017/18.

Download App

# #

Member Login