By admin       2018-09-20

As one always in search of a silver lining and often tagged the eternal optimist, I try to interject these feelings in my market letters. As of late, this is becoming very hard to do. Macroeconomic issues, aka trade disputes, are having a greater influence on the market than fundamentals, creating much uncertainty. Pricing decisions can be made with some degree of confidence when looking at global supply/demand numbers, weather trends, technical indicators and speculative sentiment. At least with those, we have historical data and trendlines from which to base sound decisions. This year, however, rational fundamentals have been replaced by the irrational actions of two world leaders, President Trump and President Xi Jinping. Their incessant placement of tariffs on imported goods has us on the brink of an all-out trade war with each party hell bent on standing their ground and not losing face. I’m not saying the previous trade scenario was fair and not in need of repair. But their unwillingness to negotiate has created a burden now being born on the back of the American farmer and rancher, and soon the consumer.

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