By admin       2018-11-27

March cotton is up as both the Dow Jones and crude oil are recovering from their sharp declines of last week. Regarding the Dow, Black Friday saw a record number, some six-billion dollars plus of on-line sales, while crude has become ridiculously oversold.However, today is also first notice day for spot December, and there were notices issued. The total number of deliveries were 198 contacts, all issued by Term Commodities, representative of a major Tennessee shipper.The majority of those notices were stopped SG Americas, most likely for a different cash merchant. Thus far, the market must like the setup, as spot December is trading triple digits higher. The delivery period for December cotton continues on to December 6.March cotton is starting this last week of November fractionally higher. Of course, it is anticipating this weekend’s G-20 meeting, when hopefully the U.S. and China may come to terms on their trade differences.This current tariff war has been ongoing since March. At that time, nearby cotton was trading well above 90-cents, but the fear of business lost caused it to roll over and plunge some 20-cents per pound.Monday afternoon, USDA will release crop progress numbers regarding the 2018 harvest. Currently, harvesting efforts have slowed across the south as episodes of rain have delayed gathering. Even last night, thunderstorms swept across South Georgia, furthering delaying harvest. This adverse weather is resulting in a further loss of quantity and quality.Net weekly sales for cotton last Friday were 210,000 bales for 2018/2019 and 31,000 bales for 2019/2020. Together, this was a new marketing year high. As of November 15, cumulative sales stand at 68% of USDA’s forecast versus its 5-year average of 56%.Open interest levels have reached a one-year low. This situation suggests speculators are concluding their long liquidation efforts, but their next market stance will be based upon the outcome of the G-20 meeting.For today, March cotton close-in support is 77.20 cents and 76.78 cents, with resistance at 78.22 cents and 78.60 cents.

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