By admin       2018-12-11

The cotton market is being victimized by the growing drama within the Trump Administration. Over the weekend there was negative news from the Muller investigation as it relates to possible campaign finance violations. This news has sent the financial market seesawing overnight and into Monday morning. Certainly, such turbulence is making it difficult for the cotton to focus solely on its fundamentals of supply and demand. Thus, the cotton market has traded both sides of Friday’s close.We might mention it was one week ago the market looked promising as the U.S. and China agreed to work out their trade differences. However, since that time there was an international event, the arrest of a top-ranking Chinese technology official in Vancouver at the request of the U.S., which has muddied the U.S.-China relationship. It will be an interesting week, politically speaking.Tuesday USDA will publish the December crop report. It is expected the government will again reduce the size of the U.S. crop. Traders see U.S. carryout at 4.16 million bales, versus November’s 4.64 million bales. The range of guesses span 4.0 million bales to 4.64 million bales. Current production for the 2018 crop is projected to be 18.22 million bales compared to November’s 18.41 million bales. The estimates range from 18.0 to 18.5 million bales.World ending stocks are projected to be 72.33 million bales against November’s 72.61 million bales. However, since the accumulation of these numbers, it is thought the Indian and Pakistani crop have are worsened. It would take some very bullish numbers to overcome the growing negativity of the U.S.-China trade war. In fact, we’re not sure the report can come out that positive, but at noon Eastern tomorrow, we will see.Close-in support for March cotton lies at 79.70 cents and 78.60 cents, with resistance at 81.15 cents and 81.80 cents.

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