By admin       2019-02-06

After being pummeled from Thursday to Monday, ICE futures are slightly elevated this morning. However, other than the thought the market is oversold, there is no real reason to expect any sort of major reversal in the trade.For starters the U.S.-China trade talks do not resume for a couple of weeks, post Chinese New Year’s celebration, and because of the government shutdown, the market is now operating on sales and exports data which is well over one month old. Then, Friday’s supply-demand is a combination of January’s and February’s data, which could lead to some skewed results.On top of all that chaos, there is growing belief 2019 plantings will be massive. Until some normalcy, such as selling to China, returns to the market, trading will continue to be choppy, congested, and most likely bearish.Cotton’s obvious up-channel support was broken last week, pressuring the futures lower this week. To that end, other closely watched technical indicators are rolling over bearish, putting the January low of 70.65 cents in jeopardy.It will take some friendly numbers from those aforementioned reports to at least plug the hemorrhaging. Then if an acceptable Chinese deal gets done, there is still time for a spring rally.For today, support for March Cotton is 72.75 cents, a 50% retracement of the Jan low Feb high, and 72.25 cents, the 62% retracement of the same range. Resistance stands at 73.50 cents. Overnight volume thus far is 4,700 contracts traded.

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